Analysis: Bitcoin Current Price Has "Almost No Bubble", with Nearly 40% of Chips in Unrealized Losses

BlockBeats News, November 6th: Analyst Murphy posted a message stating that Bitcoin has come very close to its fair value of $98,000 during the recent decline. Bitcoin's fair value is calculated as the average of historical MVRV, and if the market's valuation level (MVRV) is at its historical average, then BTC's price should be around this level, making the fair value a "mean-reverting center." The current price compared to the average cost of all active chips shows that there is almost no bubble.

If the market continues to remain rational, there should be value discovery and buying interest. If the price continues to fall, it indicates that the market has entered an irrational stage (oversold), possibly due to a confidence collapse. In such cases, participants tend to ignore value reversion and lean more towards active hedging. The current BTC Profit Supply Inflation Price (PSIP) is at 72%, already falling into the extreme range of a bull market pullback (70%-75%). Excluding Satoshi's coins and lost coins, this ratio is even lower, indicating that at least nearly 40% of the chips are currently at an unrealized loss. There is also a surge in the percentage of long-term holders at a loss, which is a signal that the pullback has entered a relatively bottom range.

The analyst believes that if the recent decline is not the extreme of a bull market pullback, it may mark the beginning of a bear market cycle. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered as investment advice.