Mexican Peso steadies as Banxico, US-China talks, and inflation lead

By: bitcoin ethereum news|2025/05/09 01:45:02
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The Mexican Peso remains supported by improved risk sentiment ahead of US-China trade talks Mexico’s inflation report highlights elevated price pressures, shifting focus to the Banxico May 15 meeting USD/MXN continues to trade in a tight range, with imminent resistance at 19.60 The Mexican Peso (MXN) has been swinging between mild gains and losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as markets digest stronger-than-expected Mexican inflation data, cautious commentary from the Fed, and the announcement of a US-UK trade deal. At the time of writing, USD/MXN is down 0.10%, trading near 19.571, holding steady within a narrow range as developments around tariff negotiations and trade talks continue to drive sentiment. Following the US announcement of its first trade agreement with the United Kingdom, attention has shifted to upcoming US–China trade talks. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer will meet Chinese officials in Switzerland. President Donald Trump added to optimism, stating he “could lower tariffs on China if talks go well.” These developments have lifted risk sentiment, offering support to the Mexican Peso and other emerging market currencies. Mexican Peso looks to the Fed and Banxico divergence On Thursday, Mexico’s April inflation report showed price growth accelerating to 3.93% year-on-year, above the 3.90% forecast and 0.10 percentage points higher than the same month last year. Core inflation rose 0.49% month-on-month, up from 0.43% in March and exceeding expectations of 0.47%, while headline inflation climbed 0.33%, also above the prior reading of 0.31%. The upside surprise in both headline and core figures signals persistent underlying pressures and adds complexity for Banxico, which is scheduled to meet next week. While a 25–50 bps rate cut is still widely expected on May 15, today’s data may prompt policymakers to adopt a more cautious tone or slow the pace of easing thereafter. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50% on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing a “wait-and-see” approach in the face of persistent inflation uncertainty and uneven growth. Traders are now weighing the implications of the Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach, a mild inflation overshoot in Mexico, and broader geopolitical risks. Market attention is shifting toward next week’s Banxico meeting, with interest rate differentials, trade policies, and political positioning continuing to shape expectations. Daily digest: Mexican Peso benefits from improved sentiment The Banxico is expected to cut rates by between 25 and 50 basis points (bps) on May 15. However, an increase in the Core inflation may limit additional rate cuts in the second half of the year Fiscal support measures announced for low-income groups on Monday may add stimulus pressure, potentially weighing on the Peso as rate differentials with the US narrow. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reaffirmed support for the USMCA (T-MEC) on Wednesday, amid concerns the Trump administration could push for revisions. The agreement provides duty-free access to the US and Canadian markets, which is key for Mexican exports. Any disruption could undermine trade and Peso sentiment. Global sentiment has improved since Tuesday, following reports of US-China trade talks scheduled this weekend in Switzerland, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer will meet Chinese officials. A constructive outcome could support emerging market assets. Mexico remains exposed to targeted US tariffs on steel and auto exports, with broader measures threatened under Trump’s trade agenda. Further escalation could dampen investor confidence and pressure the Peso. Mexico’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.2%, narrowly avoiding recession, while the US economy contracted by 0.3%, missing estimates. Slower US growth raises pressure on the Fed, but policymakers remain cautious on cuts. Fed Chair Powell reiterated on Wednesday a data-driven approach, saying, “The right thing to do is await further clarity,” and warned that tariff-driven inflation could delay policy easing. Recent US tariffs on key Mexican exports – including metals and autos – have added pressure to the external sector, weighing on trade and investment outlooks. USD/MXN falls below critical support as bearish momentum gains USD/MXN is trading below the technically significant psychological level of 19.60 at the time of writing on Thursday, which aligns with the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the mid-level of the tight range between 19.46 and 19.76 seen since April 18, suggesting fading bullish momentum and indecision among traders. Support remains anchored at the April low and the bottom of the range at 19.46, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below 40, reflecting an increase in bearish momentum without entering oversold territory. A break below Wednesday’s low of 19.56 would re-expose the April low and deepen downside risk. To regain upward traction, the pair would need a clean daily close above 19.60 and the next psychological resistance level of 19.76, which could open the door toward the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level of the April move at 19.85, though buyers remain hesitant ahead of next week’s Banxico decision. U SD/MXN daily chart Economic Indicator Central Bank Interest Rate The Bank of Mexico announces a key interest rate which affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. Generally speaking, if the central bank is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the Mexican Peso. Read more. Next release: Thu May 15, 2025 19:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: – Previous: 9% Source: Banxico Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-broadly-steadies-even-as-renewed-trade-optimism-lifts-market-sentiment-202505081106

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Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions

The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.


There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."


Question One: Is this encryption the same as Signal's encryption?


No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.


In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.


X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.


This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.


The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.


The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.


After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."


From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.


In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.



As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."


Issue 2: Does Grok know what you're messaging in private?


Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.


For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.


This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.


There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."


Issue 3: Why is there no Android version?


X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.


In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.



WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.


X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.


These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.


Elon Musk's "Super App"


This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.



X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.


Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.


The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.


X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.


The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.


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