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QCP Capital: Market in Consolidation Phase Awaiting This Thursday's CPI Data Release, Low Likelihood of Further Escalation in US Trade Friction
BlockBeats News, September 8th, QCP Capital released its latest report stating that after last Friday's non-farm payroll data unexpectedly fell short of expectations, stock futures continued to rise. This data confirmed the soft job market trend since June — when the record of 53 consecutive months of job growth was broken. With the market betting on a further 72 basis point rate cut this year, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell to a new annual low.
However, the risk appetite brought by the Fed's rate cut expectations did not spread to the cryptocurrency sector. Despite the stock market rebound and gold hitting new highs, cryptocurrencies showed independent price action, consolidating sideways over the past week.
The market may interpret this sideways movement as a bearish signal: the risk reversal indicator shows a surge in demand for put options, especially for September expiry contracts. However, some believe that this actually demonstrates the resilience of crypto assets — even though the Strategy was removed from the S&P 500 Index, Bitcoin still held above the $110,000 mark; despite five consecutive days of outflows in spot ETFs, Ethereum remained above $4,250.
QCP Capital believes that this directional ambiguity further reflects the market's cautious attitude ahead of Thursday's U.S. inflation data release. Short-term implied volatility remains high, a situation that may persist after the CPI data is published. If the inflation data exceeds the expected value of 0.3%, it may complicate the Fed's rate cut path. Although the probability is low, considering the impact of tariffs, the market is not entirely unprepared for this.
Even if the tariff policy causes a temporary spike in data, judging by the current economic situation, the likelihood of the Trump administration further escalating trade tensions is low. Therefore, unless this week's data triggers an overreaction, the crypto market will still receive solid support in the absence of significant catalysts.
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